The Year to Come

My forecast for 2020

For 35 years, I did political work. It was International and rooted in history. A leading aspect of that work was forecasting, in the areas of Economics, Political and Strategic Intelligence. If anyone stumbled on my postings on the Philly.com political discussion board back then, you would have read the warnings I issued in 2003 regarding the coming blowout of the Real Estate market bubble, and the Mortgage backed securities market, which hit in 2008. I was also discussing with people the impending collapse of the Soviet economic system in the mid 80's, and the potential for German unification 4 years before it happened.
I'm not clairvoyant, but I know how the world works. That said--

2020 will be the year of the Youth. We will see an avalanche of Milennial voting and activism that will not only sweep Trump and his movement out, but will begin a Cultural paradigm shift that overturns the moral compromises of the Boomer Generation. That WILL happen, and it will be messy, but good!

The Republican Party will shatter into pieces, which will reflect the current rupture underway among Evangelical Christians, many of whom are not Fascists and don't want to belong to a Cult. GOP control of the Senate will continue, but there will be wholesale leadership changes, especially if McConnell loses. 

Bernie Sanders will be the nominee, and will harness the Youth ferment and win. 

Trump will not be Impeached. But, he will be a lame duck. In desperation mode for the rest of the year, Trump will do things that are so reckless and deranged, that he will lose a big chunk of his base, and tank the Stock Market before the Election. ( don't be surprised if he fires Powell) 

Trump will try to escalate conflict with Iran. This will backfire on him in the form of an Oil price shock and gasoline price jump before the election, undercutting his claims of prosperity and investor confidence. Expect the Bond market AND the Stock Market both to take a big hit. Combined with the fallout from escalating trade war, expect the Trump "boom" to go boom, and watch the rats jump off his sinking ship. 

Mexico will take concrete steps to protect their economy and sovereignty from continued escalating threats coming from the US. Expect there to be an expansion of trade agreements between Mexico and China, especially on Pharma and Tech. 

Overall, I am optimistic. Why? Because I'm from Philadelphia, where everything started. And we defeated the biggest and most evil Empire on Earth, with a ragtag group, armed only with powerful ideas. We did it once, we can do it again! 

Happy New Year, to all my friends and enemies.

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