My "Non-Forecast" For The Year To Come, 2022

 

Some Thoughts Regarding Americans On The Occasion Of Our First New Years Eve In Mexico-

Since I starting writing in earnest, I've posted a sort of New Years themed article on each of the last two years to address some of the important issues facing us. These have been both political and personal in nature, and have included a vain attempt on my part to make a political forecast, a sort of "the year to come" piece.

Today I write from southern Mexico where Martha and I have begun a new life. We are immersed in it throughout our day, meeting the people, making new friends, learning about the history and culture, enjoying its sights, sounds and amenities, and in my own case learning the language.

Meanwhile, we also see the variety of needs which exist here and are constantly talking about what we both can give to the community which will be helpful, how we can make a difference. In that sense, we are not your typical expats who are here solely to get things that we want, or enjoy what we can get. This is our home now, and the people here for the most part are our new family. And we will do for them what we can and should do, no more, no less, just because we are that way, and have never been passive observers.

That's our life during the day. It's at night when I'm stuck stressing over the situation in the United States. It's the time when my mind is roiled with speculation, imagination and torment over the reality that I see. No matter what I do to distract myself, it is there in my mind, and when nightime comes and the activities of the day have faded, it is there in bold relief.

That will never change, because the future of mankind depends in large part whether the US continues to circle the drain at its current rate, or some organizing force brings new leadership into the equation which makes possible an 11th hour shift in direction. And since the future of mankind and the US has been my life's work, as opposed to having had a conventional life and career, I cannot turn my back on the current threat facing my country.

So, that part of my psyche, which in the words of Macbeth "hath murdered sleep" is not going to change. However, this year I'm going to do something different. I'm not going to write about the "year to come", or make any attempt at a political forecast. Why, you might ask.

Because I can't do this to my friends. I can't bring myself to write it. I feel like it would be an act of sadism to speak of what is coming. My feeling is that akin to someone who has received a diagnosis for a loved one and is discussing arrangements for hospice care. There is, at a certain point no need to discuss how it all ends. We know how it will end.

But this entry into a modern version of Dante's Hell need not be greeted with a sign which reads "abandon all hope all ye who enter here". There is reason for us to have hope so long as we use our minds and our powers of reason, and maintain our capacity to love. It means that the seemingly incalculable and unsolvable crisis we face will require a wholesale revolution in our thinking and practice if we are to survive intact as a Democratic republic. Therefore I'll write about that, rather than spin dystopian Doomsday scenarios.

Having said all that, it's easy for anyone to vent their pessimism, cynicism, feelings of dread and doom, and equally so to try and construct an "everything is beautiful" argument for positivity.  (not unlike the infamous Captain of the Titanic, who insisted that his ship was unsinkable, even as he was desperately giving orders to move his far too many passengers into too few lifeboats, too few because lifeboats were never thought to be needed)

I would have to say that the majority of Americans are at this time preoccupied with their own personal survival and happiness, and have given up their belief that they as individuals can personally have an impact on government or society in the large. The long held bedrock of belief in the power of an individual to bring about positive political change is virtually dead. I do not believe Americans have entirely given up on the future or life in general, rather they have adopted resignation and a form of fatalism with respect to the crisis at hand. They abjure responsibilty because they know with certainty that "big money" controls everything. It then becomes easy to rationalize the outlook of "take care of number one". That is, in my view, the downside of our modernist culture of "self care".

There is a boundary condition at which if taken to the extreme of becoming a credo or a lifestyle, a retreat into solely personal life defaults to social isolation, nihilism and even tends toward narcissism. If you want to know where that leads, watch some episodes of "Keeping Up With The Kardashians", or read a few issues of Gwynneth Paltrow's "Goop". It is, to turn on its head a famous quote by philosopher Hannah Arendt, "the evil of banality". "Oh, Trump is calling the January 6th terrorists heroes and inciting physical attacks on Congress again? I think I'll just do some naked hot Yoga to relax". Too. Much. Stress. Won't. Help Anything. So it is said. 

And this is one way we write ourselves out of the equation, hoping someone else knows what to do, then goes ahead and does it.

Many of our people will also construct a cynical ideological argument to avoid thinking or doing anything about it. For example, some among the devotees of historian Howard Zinn and others of the progressive anarchist persuasion are totally comfortable with the idea of writing the United States off. Why? Because we deserve it, they would say. Since their view is that the US was never any good, born in hypocrisy, racial oppression, genocide against First Peoples, Slavery, capitalist exploitation, sexism, religious bigotry, ad infinitum, what we see now unfolding is what the US has been all along, which is "no fucking good", say many of Zinn's followers. "This is the magic of Karma and Charles Darwin at work, and our perpetually raped Mother Nature exacting revenge, why interfere with that"? Really, why? (I'm not attacking Zinn here, rather those who deconstruct his History to justify a deeply immoral cynicism)

These are the Liberal cynics who cheerlead for the covid virus to run rampant throughout the unvaccinated Red State populations and take down its insurrectionist leaders, because, after all, that would be so much easier than actually having to become politically active, then get all exhausted or stressed out. How many people lay awake at night compiling a New Years wish list of people they would like to see contract covid, hospitalized, then denied intubation when they get it, who then search Google for funny memes to post on Facebook when these individuals die? A few too many, I would conclude. Think of the famous Edgar Allan Poe story "Masque of the Red Death" and the fate of the masked ball attendees described, in order to get some perspective on these folks who believe their money, privilege, vaccines and health regimens alone will protect them. 

Then there are the folks who sincerely fear for our future who are grounded in reality, yet are going through the motions, actually doing very little.  What they do in politics is the virtual equivalent of faking an orgasm, because they think it's helpful, has better "optics" and is at least in the right spirit.  Then they can feel less guilty about not doing much and appearing to care, while privately knowing that their passion is transparently not real enough to put themselves out front.

Of course there are many people fighting actively for the right things, and against the right people, but whose impact is dulled by the lack of a unified strategy or leadership. These consist of citizens and groups that each go off in different directions, engaged on separate single issues.  Unfortunately, too many people 'doing their own thing" in these circumstances adds up to doing "no thing" relative to what is needed. This is a major problem.

Our forces are, in that sense, at a decided disadvantage because of the lack of a unified approach. Our adversaries, the insurrection or whatever you might call them are unified by their stupidity and rage. They stand for nothing. They have no policy, no future orientation, and their preoccupation, if they are business people is getting rid of government to let them accumulate more money. Or if they are religious they are preoccupied with sex. That is, to limit sex among others while secretly in search of getting more for themselves. You all know that is the dirty secret of the Fundamentalists. Their politics are a substitute  for sex, and defines their actual concept of "freedom". Their "family values" campaigns are mostly a cover for what is going on behind their Hotel Room doors. Like in the case of the Falwells, whose concept of the Christian Trinity is engaging in a threesome with the Pool Boy. 

This is why they love guns, hate taxes, hate government regulation, hate laws and science. Anything which interferes with moneymaking and their sex lives is the essence of Dictatorship, and a threat to their "personal"  freedom.

So, because they are stupid, enraged, and have no policy, they have nothing really to disagree about, and therefore are totally unified. Democrats and independents who are actively engaged in the fight generally are thinking people, who believe in the efficacy of ideas, and therefore as humans are often inclined to do, they engage in debate and conflict. They argue. But without a unified leadership they splinter along ideological lines and suffer a diminished power to make changes.

Disgusting as it is to say, the Trump GOP is more effectively organized and potent because they are thoroughly unified by the obsessive hatred and rage of its leader. And most of our citizens have to a degree resigned themselves to this reality, therefore they choose to fade into the background in hope this modern day Biblical Plague will "passover", notwithstanding the shortage of Lamb's blood for their front doors.

Many writers whom I respect such as Chauncey Devega of Salon, and Robert Reich (who I like even though he frustrates me) are constantly asking the question, why aren't people outraged enough to do something? Why are we so passive in the face of a crisis which threatens the future and our children? Unfortunately, we are sorely lacking today the types of social commentators like George Carlin, who are willing to just tear into popular culture, fads and general ignorance without fear or timidity. He didn't care who he offended in pursuit of the truth, and was a kind of modern day Socrates. He would be asking louder than anyone if he were living "what has happened to us"? 

I don't pretend to have the definitive answer to that question. If I said I did you would be justified in profiling me as one of those Dudes on the internet who thinks he knows everything and is always right, and basically take all of this and hit the delete key. 

Most of our friends know that when it comes to discussing political, cultural and scientific issues that Martha and I are a team, and what we post is part of a joint discussion process. We have a combined 97 years of political activism on our resume, and are not deferrential at all in speaking our minds.. We argue and debate frequently, which is natural since we hold differing views. But the thing which unifies us is our shared sense of purpose in defending the very concept which the majority of Americans have abandoned. We believe that ideas have real power. We try to represent ideas which are hopefully grounded in science and history, formed in the spirit of charity and love, constructive and intelligible to all, rooted in both idealism and practicality, and which are worth fighting for even if it means we never live to see those ideas bear fruit. 

I don't call these things "dreams". To me, that consigns our future to a metaphysical or mysterious form of hope that is more fantasy than concrete reality, something separate and ethereal which if realized comes from some external force. I prefer the word "mission". Not in the sense of a religious zealot or a soldier following orders, but more in the sense of having a great design we want to be accomplished. 

Ask yourselves whether Franklin Roosevelt brought "dreams" to the Presidency at a time of arguably our most dangerous national crisis. I believe that he was on a mission, and had a plan. And he had the passion for solving the crisis which enabled him to throw out his plan if it wasn't working and to create a new one. And that is what he did. 

When I read history, I don't look so much at what happened. I look at what specific people did in history, and take what I can of the appropriate lessons from it. In my mind, I start with the question, "what would I have done"? Unless we are asking that question of ourselves in order to inform our actions in the present, what is even the point of studying history? To sit back like an armchair cynic with our copy of Howard Zinn's "People's History" on our table next to our Mojito, and make pronouncements about Karma and Darwin at work? 

We have an idea already how this year will go. It will lead to inevitable disaster. The question is "then what"? Who has a plan which is grounded in reality, that exists not just on paper?

I would assert that there are three main obstacles to accomplishing anything good, and saving our Republic. Assuming it is not too late, what are they? 

1. The fillibuster

2. The Manchin/Sinema Obstruction tag team

3. Merrick Garland

I'm perfectly happy to indulge in hope and positivity, when one person in particular lays out a serious plan for overcoming these obstacles. You know who that is. 

Without this, any discussion of the Biden administration's accomplishments, succeeding in the future, and saving democracy amounts to speaking into our own echo chamber. It has no validity, except as a futile effort to salvage a legacy. 

To conclude, (I can hear the cheers of Yaaaay) I just had a funny thought about the New York Mets Baseball team. Every year, after failing, they fire their Manager and coaches, purge their front office and scouting department, bring in new and wealthier owners, spend hundreds of millions on top free agent star players, trade for new players, and announce they are leading contenders. Every year, the Mets "win the off-season", on paper. And every year they suck. Truly, and totally suck. They have a mystique and aura of suck, and I don't say that just because I am a Philadelphian. 

To those who argue that real change is not possible because big money controls everything, just look at the New York Mets, who have the most money and the biggest market, more recently spends the most, and will most assuredly suck again this year. This should be a source of optimism for all of us as we stand on the threshold of 2022.  And this, my friends is the only forecast I will be making today.

God Bless, and stay safe, have a happy and healthy New Year from both Martha and I.