Vladimir Putin, the Man With His Shirt Off Caught With His Pants Down-- Part I

 

Vladimir Putin, The Man With No Shirt On, Caught With His Pants Down--  Part 1

Woody Allen made a film some 50 years ago called "Take the Money and Run", which had a famous bank robbery scene, in which he handed the bank teller a note saying "I have a gun", and then gave the teller a bag to fill up with money. The teller, looking carefully at the note asked, "what, you have a gub"? No, Allen's character said, "my handwriting was bad because I was rushed, it says gun". The teller responds "I don't know, are you sure, it really looks like 'gub'  to me". And of course they go back and forth for a while, before the inevitable fail unfolds, descending into the predictable hilarious absurdity you expect from Woody. 

In reading about certain events this week, I thought of that scene. I think in a bit you will see why. 

This week has seen the reports of two related Intelligence bombshells, both of which are relevant to the challenges facing President-Elect Biden, as he and his transition team grapple with the complex issues involving future US-Russian relations. 

We have seen the continuing spectacular revelations of the presumed Russian Intelligence hack of US Government Computer systems, compromising data from the Departments of Treasury and Commerce, but possibly other departments as well. The damage done is still being assessed, since the Internet security Software brand known as Solar Winds is used for both high level government and corporate data protection. 

Additionally, was publication of the CNN/Bellingcat documentation on the Russian Intelligence services poisoning of anti-corruption leader Alexey Navalny this past Summer, which left a trail of digital and forensic evidence leading directly to Vladimir Putin. 

The second story on Navalny has set off the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a tirade against Russia's "Western partners", claiming the public release of this information to be "funny to read", and "insane". At no point does he deny anything stated, he simply objects to it being made public. Needless to say, no Russian diplomat will ever issue a public statement as did Lavrov on matters of Russia's relations to the West without prior approval from "The Boss". 

This is a Russian political tradition which probably goes back to the year 988 AD, the date of the Christianization of "Matushka Rus" under the first Czar Vladimir. The cited statement by Lavrov and his Boss are linked below. 

So we are left with some glaringly obvious facts, which give rise to some equally obvious questions and conclusions, if one thinks about it. 

First is that clearly both reports eminate from high level government intelligence sources, hence the assumption of some credibility. Based on public statements by the cited government officials, there is little doubt that the hack was sophisticated to such degree that it could only have come from a State actor, and that the digital trail leads once again  to the Internet Research Agency, the Russian GRU (military intelligence) entity which has been doing Putin's dirty work since at least 2013. 

The Navalny poisoning story is a piece of investigative journalism which could not have occurred without Intelligence Community input. The factual information in the report could only have come from an Intelligence agency, either ours, the Russians, or a third party with a window into Russia through HUMINT, or SIGINT sources. Since it was months in the making, it is fair to assume CNN was thorough in vetting the sources, verifying the stated facts, and the report written in coordination with high level figures in our National Security agencies. CNN, like other big news agencies, does not publish "conspiracy theories" regarding superpower relations. 

Second, as with all strategic events, including intelligence bombshells, significant scandals, revelations, and public disclosures of the above, I always ask the questions of "why now"?, and "who benefits?" I've said this before, but when trying to make sense of things which happen, often the timing of an event, and its context tell you more than the event itself. This can be very subjective and based on hypothesis, not initially derived through just empirical data. Experience and depth of background are needed to unpack the actual significance of these events. Therefore, since there is, in my view, a subjective element to this which is vital, we need to look at certain factors which only briefly appear in the headlines, and disappear just as quickly, factors which seem secondary or irrelevant to some, but in fact mean everything. I refer to the outlook and current mindset of Putin himself. 

I'll start with what I know to be true about Putin. He is a Russian Nationalist, whose identity is not rooted in Communist Ideology, but in the deeply mystical and religious doctrines of the Russian Orthodox Church, and everything implied by its blood and soil attachment to "Holy Mother Russia". This fierce and virtually unfathomable cult of "Holy Mother Russia" has been shaped and hardened by eight Centuries of invasions of Russia by its neighbors and adversaries, starting with the Mongol invasion by Genghis Khan in year 1237, the Swedish invasion by King Charles XII in 1707,  the later invasion by Napoleon Bonaparte in June of 1812, up until Adolf Hitler's "Operation Barbarossa" in June of 1941.  The willingness of Russian leaders, whether their Czars, Soviets, or Russian Federation leaders today, to conduct operations of a defensive or offensive nature, regardless of loss of human life, is justified in the Russian mind by the cultural imperative to defend at all costs the holy, sacred soil of Mother Russia against all adversaries. The conflicted history of Russia itself, a nation of great Art, Music, Dance, great Scientific achievements, coexists with the barbaric and brutal cultural abreaction to this bloody history, in which the sacrifice of human life, including Russians in large numbers, is justified in the name of the dominant culture of grievance and victimization resulting from  that history. 

Of course, this historical identity as "the most aggrieved nation" becomes at a certain point a rationalization and cover for authoritarianism and brutality in the name of national security, but in fact is meant to serve mainly the advantage of an entrenched Oligarchy which suppresses it's own people in order to maintain power. They use the paranoia and fear of the people to wield power, justify political murder, pursue aggressive military and Intelligence operations, and defend it all with the posture of "whataboutism". Russian leaders have always justified their crimes and violations of human rights by changing the subject, and confronting the accuser with their own similar abuses of power, and by playing the "double standard" blame game. This is the most common tactic of Dictators, Imperialists, Fascist and populist leaders, and Oligarchs in general, both to defend their actions and to manipulate their own people with their deeply shared bond as "fellow victims". In fact, if you want to understand the nature of the intense synchronicity of outlook between Putin himself, and his "asset" Donald Trump, it is this identity of the aggrieved victim, who cultivates that outlook in his own people to justify Autocratic rule, persecution of "enemies of the people", and the whole package of authoritarian populism. Explore that issue and you can answer many unresolved questions about Trump and his base, and the way each of us has been played over the years. The convergence of "Trumpism" with the tribalism of Mother Russia's victimization is striking. 

So, this brings us to the other factors we know to be true regarding Putin and his situation, the context for these events. Given the developments of the past five months, it can be said that Putin is an even greater "loser" than his asset Trump, and that his control of his regime is imperiled for the first time in its 20 years as a result. For this reason, his actions since August have been tinged with an uncharacteristic desperation and sloppiness, leading to the revelations of this week. 

From here, I'll call this the end of Part I and pick up the rest later.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/16/europe/alexey-navalny-poisoning-sergey-lavrov-russia-intl/index.html