A Post "State Of The Union" Overview--President Biden's Victory, And What We Need To Do To Follow On--

A Post "State Of The Union" Overview--President Biden's Victory, And What We Need To Do To Follow On-- 

First, I'll take the liberty of saying that I believe we all are in agreement that President Biden's performance at the State Of The Union address was masterful, and that he thoroughly outflanked the disruptive behavior of the GOP/MAGA forces, turning it against them in the fashion of a black belt Judoku.  

The weakness which the President exploited was grounded in two factors. First is the irrefutable success of the policy initiatives which he was able to get through, despite the GOP's obstructionism and Democratic centrist sabotage (ie; Manchin, Sinema) The spontaneous playful barbs tossed at his GOP "friends" ribbing them for taking credit back home for the Biden programs they opposed was devastating. It was reminiscent of the "slice and dice" almost silent "pfffftt" of a Japanese Samurai sword, leaving them sitting there with their severed heads in their laps. For that alone, Biden could star in the yet unscripted Part III of the Tarantino Martial Arts Film "Kill Bill." 

Second, is that clearly the most rabid members of the House and Senate, especially the newbies who never had the chance to work with Joe in the Senate and observe him in action, were taken completely by surprise by his demeanor, nimbleness of mind and fighting spirit. It appeared to me that many were so immersed in their three year long Putin/Trump authored campaign of denigration that they fully believed their own propaganda. That is to say, the "sleepy Joe is demented" line of attack. Their heckling was pathetically impotent, enraged, and defensive, as should be evident from their confused reaction to his ingenious trap on Medicare and Social Security. By denying their intent to eliminate both, the GOP been outed as aggressive gaslighting liars, since, as they say in NFL locker rooms, "the tape never lies." 

The simple reality is that Joe treated the American people with respect and reverence, by showing us in detail what WE helped to accomplish by electing him and VP Harris, outlining precisely the successes which were both vital and hard fought. Conversely, he treated the appearance before his opposition like a mature parent taking his family to the Zoo. Treat the inhabitants respectfully, make sure you are humane, enjoy or observe them for what they are, but DON'T FEED THEM OR VENTURE INTO THEIR ENCLOSURES.  

I realize that making this equivalence between Republicans and Zoo animals is not entirely fair. Zoo animals are captive, not there by choice, and Republicans are in general predatory captors. But, behaviorally speaking, if I had to choose, I'd rather live at the Zoo than in a red state.  

That said, (sorry, I hate that expression) this has been an eventful chapter in our current narrative, but that part has closed and we need to look ahead. We have a number of strategic issues, foreign and domestic that are hanging fire which we need to be prepared for. Some of it obvious, some not, much of it in the category of "unknowns." I'll list them in order of priority based on my take on things. Please don't take any of this as "bad news." It's intended more as a roadmap of possibilities and proposals for action. 

1) On the strategic front, we don't know how the Russian attempt to annihilate Ukraine will resolve, and therefore our US political situation, narrowly defined, and whatever gains we make now are tenuous at best, and at worst could be wiped out by a big strategic catastrophe. Likewise, there will be political pressures on the President from the West Wing, NATO partners and elsewhere to modify his strategic decision-making, which could affect our involvement and the outcome of the conflict. Plus we should expect the House GOP to use every conceivable tactic on behalf of their idol Putin to disrupt US military aid to Ukraine.  It is the President's and the world's most dangerous crisis, and we need to be forward thinking in our assessments of how this could affect domestic politics.  

The other global strategic issue of which we need be aware are the persistent warnings by financial experts that we are verging upon a 2008 type of financial bubble collapse, encompassing overvalued Equities in housing and commodities, many of the new and more exotic forms of virtual money, including emphatically Crypto, NFTs, (Non Fungible Tokens) and the trillions of dollars in unregulated fictional digital values in derivatives, especially those leveraged off of consumer debt. These are instruments which are tied to nothing real, which could enter a reverse leverage phase when triggered by disruptive events whose contagion would hit us. This is a nightmare scenario which would have to be somehow managed by the Fed with bailouts, and the fallout would of course be blamed on the President. There are many reasons to ban and/or regulate these markets, which the President should address preemptively before there is a crisis, in my view.  

2) The House GOP leadership is further down the rabbit hole than we want to believe, and there is a question of "if and when" President Biden will abandon his attempts at bipartisanship. If he does shift gears, it will be because the MAGA/QAnon faction succeeds in purging the moderates altogether, such that he will have no negotiating counterparties. Given this political calculus, government itself will not only be gridlocked, but there are infinite scenarios for instability, chaos and/or a shutdown over the debt ceiling. Kevin McCarthy could wake up any day to find that he is the newly appointed Speaker of the House Men's Room, with the keys and paper towels left in front of his chained shut office door. There will be no legislation worth speaking of, only obstruction, hearings, impeachments, and calls for special prosecutors. It will be a circus.  

3) Expect Trump's allies to move to oust Mitch McConnell from his Senate Minority Leader role, to be replaced by Trump cuckold Lindsey Graham. This will be a subsumed aspect of the intense game of political musical chairs building up through the Trump vs DeSantis conflict, with the Senate infighting being a main stage for this factional warfare. Most of the positioning over policy divisions within the GOP will adhere pretty much to those fault lines.  

4) We don't know if, when, or where Trump himself will be indicted or for what. But it's a safe bet that charges will be brought. And because he is Trump, his response is totally predictable. However, Trump himself is not our greatest problem. That would be the self-induced blindness and denial at the leadership level which is axiomatically the same as that which Trump's Democratic opponents displayed before and after the election of 2020, up until January 6th. Any assessment or analysis which begins with the formulation "he would never..." is methodologically bankrupt and an intelligence failure in progress. Anyone expecting Trump to abide by his attorney's advice or submit to a judicial process involving criminal charges is deluded. And it will start the day he is indicted, when he is likely to not surrender to authorities and dares them to come and get him. Therefore, I believe that President Biden will need to make difficult decisions which are of the sort like those forced upon him by the Russians, except this time on US soil.  

5) While the Democratic Party has elevated new and younger leadership, and appears unified, there are still strong divisions between the moderates and the progressives which remain unresolved. This will emerge more clearly as the 2024 campaign process begins sometime this year, and will be embedded in the debate over the campaign status of VP Harris, and a concerted effort from within the West Wing by her opponents to oust her from the ticket. Attempts to project a "united front" aside, this is the area of greatest contention within Biden's team that will present over the next months. President Biden I believe will want to run it back with the VP for reasons of continuity, loyalty, maintaining his bridges to women and minorities, and his basic good kind of stubborness. But, what is not known is what VP Harris wants, and what her plans are. It is common knowledge that she is unhappy with her role, in which she has been chafing under a visibility limit. There are people in the White House team who are concerned with the President's age and health, (though there are no apparent serious issues as of the moment) and have raised serious doubts about her competence to be President in an emergency based on her job performance as VP. This is coming from the centrists who are already gaming the 2024 race, and frankly that whole line reeks of racist overtones. I don't agree she is in any way incompetent, but this is an actual real conflict which is going to factor in, and needs to be on our radar screens as yet another "unknown."  Unless some changes are made in her role, she might decide to go another direction.  

There is also the issue which still remains undefined, which is that the President shook up the White House staff, and there has been a realignment of sorts with certain figures on the way up, and others on the way out. This was done preparatory to the 2024 campaign, and we don't really have a scorecard yet for determining exactly who is where in the pecking order. "Who's" on first? "I don't know," but either way, nothing is written in stone or will stay the same. There will be byzantine maneuvering by administration factions seeking the President's ear, and it could be bloody. 

6) The engagement and mobilization of the Democratic base, or lack thereof is the "X-factor" in what the administration can or can't do under the circumstances. Relative to the proselytizers of the MAGA faithful, too many Democrats are passive and content to observe. (With the notable exceptions of the nationwide movement for voting rights led by Stacey Abrams and her allies, along with the pro-choice women's activists)  This is reflected in the obsessive spectator-itis throughout the January 6th hearings and over the status of the various legal investigations of the Trump apparatus. Ironically, the people most passionate about the cause of democracy are too often the least involved in bringing about "democracy-in-action." There are several reasons for this fact, which we have discussed here at various points. But it has to change, today.  

Fundamentally, in the majority they are afflicted with the ulcerating cynical mindset of believing that money equals power, and that individually they have too little of both to make a difference themselves. Consequently they cheerlead for others to do their fighting for them, in a way similar to sports betting, except the events and people they are betting on hold our futures in their hands. And of course, they are entirely wrong from an historical standpoint. It is the power of ideas which drives politics and history, and every other explanation is an excuse to be absent, like a permanent doctor's note from our Moms to excuse us from gym class that day. This problem cries out for action from those who are willing to face it, and then take responsibility for intervening.  

We need normal individual citizens to take the life-changing and courageous step to run for office against local or national MAGA candidates, with or without DNC endorsement. The objective would be much greater than just winning elections, rather to be grassroots candidates who make their campaigns rallying points for a movement of citizens which resists fascism, and stands for the historic ideals of democratic government. I believe that the primary objective of modern Democratic politics has changed. It is not simply to attain elected office and represent voters. It is the political and moral necessity to combat and defeat MAGA as an institutional entity, because it is an abomination, a blot on our history akin to the Confederacy, no longer a political party.  If we are content to defer to the DNC or teams of lawyers and investigators to clean up our MAGA mess for us, we will lose everything.  

7) As I've tried to convey before, based on my experiences in politics, I believe that a two year long sort of moratorium on social media (except that which pertains to this) would be appropriate for many of us. Close down the old laptop, pick up the phone, organize face-to-face meetings, grab a clipboard, make contacts, and organize grassroots Democracy clubs, which would work as a forum for education and making plans. Some of you who take the plunge, who walk out the front door to engage with other real people instead of "zooming" them, might then step up and decide to run, because no one else wants to and someone has to do it.  

I know there are people out there who can do this. I've recruited dozens of candidates and raised 10 million dollars for campaigns before I retired. I know what is involved in terms of making life changes to do it. And running against MAGA has inherent risks associated, unlike the campaigns in my day. We all agree that we want to save democracy and defeat MAGA. Therefore, the question is, who among us wants it enough to say "me, I'll do it! F**k the DNC, f**k the media, f**k MAGA, let me at 'em, the President needs me?" That's a big decision of course, which should never be made on impulse, rather in consultation with those you trust the most.   

To draw any other conclusion from what Joe said on Tuesday night would in my view be our worst failure. His speech and the victory it represented is a call for action, addressing us, not just Congress. Not something to watch while eating popcorn.  

Have fun, and have an adventure.  

"Every day, I try to do something that scares me."     

         ----Eleanor Roosevelt