What I Believe Putin's May 9th Speech Will Set Afoot- A Comment On Today's Letter By Our Professor

 


What I Believe Putin's May 9th Speech Will Set Afoot- A Comment On Today's Letter By Our Professor Heather Cox Richardson--  

Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine, invoking the imagery of "The Great Patriotic War", and calling up reserves in a national mobilization. At some point in the next months, in my view, as the Russian casualties grow, the Russian opposition will re-emerge and Putin will be faced with a two front war, in Ukraine and at home. He will have to conduct a hundred "Bloody Sundays"  to put down his opposition, and will unleash "The Furies" against himself and his evil regime. 

It is inevitable that similar kinds of war crimes against civilians carried out against Ukrainians will soon be repeated by him internally against his own people on a scale not yet seen.  His internal security forces, which successfully beat down, tear gassed and jailed the followers of Navalny last year will not be sufficient to suppress what is coming. He will have to deploy part of his Army, the most untrained and raw, domestically.

How do I know this? Because over the last 25-30 years, Russians have had a taste of the modern world, and a rising standard of living, with more access to information and knowledge. They know that there is no Ukrainian fascist threat to invade Russia, though many of Putin's supporters will be showcased by Russian media as representative of Russian public opinion. At the point that the Russian military's guns, not clubs and tear gas, are turned upon their Brothers and Sisters, Fathers, Mothers, Daughters and Sons,  is the point at which Putin will develop "a serious illness" and simply disappear. It will be "arranged." And the leaders of the current government and Russian church allied with Putin will be "reassigned., or likewise develop "health problems."

The new Russian government will have a short period of public mourning, resume diplomacy with the West, and slowly, quietly begin to undo the 23 years of political and economic damage, (not the damage to Ukraine) while not admitting any responsibilty for Putin's crimes. None at all. This is the Russian way. 

The Russian population will fight to defend the sacred soil of Holy Mother Russia with a ferocity and determination which is unparalleled, but to invade, occupy and crush another country of fellow Christian Slavs, no. To massacre fellow Russians, also no. There will be blood, but not civil war. And this all assumes of course that between now and then that NATO and Russia don't come to blows. 

I believe that how it all resolves depends largely upon what we, the American people do here over the next six months, not what President Biden does. There is no doubt that a GOP/Trumpian regime coming to power here for any extended period will do everything possible to restore the "stay behind" allies of Putin to power, enable or install similar autocracies and theocracies, and will act to dissolve NATO. They will also employ the same methods of terror, violence and blackmail as Putin to extend their control and crush their political opposition in the US, albeit through puppet Governors empowered to do so. 

If we allow the US to go that way, all of the Ukrainian and Russian blood spilled to rid the world of Putin will have been for nothing. It really is up to us. Are we ourselves currently mobilizing as if that's the case? That is an actual question. Just some thoughts as we move ahead.

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