"What Do I Think"? I've Written 370 Blog Articles Trying To Tell You What I Think--

(photo-- Putin's Mother)


My friends have been reaching out to ask me what I think, what's going to happen. I'm honored and happy to have earned that degree of trust. 

Honestly I don't know what will happen. It depends on what is going on behind closed doors. The sanctions will have a big impact, but will not deter Putin in the least from doing what he feels necessary. Remember that the official death toll for Russia in WW II was 20 million, but it is thought to be closer to 50 million. Russians will absorb incalculable casualties, pain and suffering both to defend the sacred soil of "Holy Matuschka Rus" and also will willingly suffer at the hands of their Czar. That is the invariant of their history, regardless of whether their young people use the internet. 

Don't expect an anti-war opposition to accomplish much except to redeem Russia's soul for future generations. 

The biggest strategic error that can be made, and has in part made this crisis worse is backing Russia into a corner. That guarantees the worst possible outcome for all sides. Biden must make an offer to induce Putin to pull back without total capitulation for either, and this means doing something out of the box where Russia can withdraw and save face. I have some thoughts on it but for now will just hold off and watch. 

The most important thing is what Putin thinks, and figuring out a way to outflank him. He believes that Ukraine is Russia. Period. That will not change. He looks at Ukrainian NATO Membership as if it was his favorite daughter being raped, because Russians live there, and it is part of Russia's "near abroad" in geostrategic terms. It does not matter whether we agree,, or how much of it is lies, that is his non-negotiable position. There is no threat or other economic leverage that will back him down at this point. He doesn't care about his money, or the Oligarch's money. He is in the grip of a "Third and Final Rome" Nationalist fever dream, in which revanchism and desire to "Make Russia Great Again" are determining his actions. He will be as fanatical as the Soviet WW II soldiers who fought at Stalingrad.

Biden must give ground on certain things important to Putin, and vice versa. Some sort of agreement for cease fire and real peacekeepers must happen. Agreements for humanitarian aid and economic reconstruction should be discussed, and at this point some kind of partition, whether we like it or not. And yes, Biden must offer a "Carrot" of future economic cooperation as an inducement,, which might mean partial restoration of G-7 status after a long probationary period. That, I believe is where we are. 

Any attempt by the West to intervene militarily will escalate to nuclear war between the superpowers. So this is no time for intransigence or tough talk. It is a time to deal. Again, like it or not. 

If we are angry, and we want to hurt Putin in retaliation for what he is doing, let us focus on rolling up and crushing the beast known as "Trumpism" here at home. He is Putin's "superweapon" like a deadly virus cooked up in a lab. That is our war, and the one which is winnable if we get off of our butts and stop cheerleading from the sidelines for prosecutors and TV media pundits.  We need political involvement in the real world, an ongoing political show of force to get Joe Biden and Merrick Garland off center to combat and defeat Trump's Insurrection now, not next year, or in 3 years. 

If you want to make Putin pay, forget about his bank account. Go after the GOP's bank accounts. No doubt, we will find a lot of Russian money there. 

And lastly, I appreciate that folks want to know what I think. It makes me feel validated. But I have a Blog which now has 378 articles posted in the last 2 years. I've told you all more about what I think than anyone you know. It's all there, every single thing I think. Use my Blog. Share the articles. Follow me on Twitter, and click like and retweet them. If you think my take on things is important, get my name out there. That will accomplish more than putting a Ukrainian Flag on your profile picture. 

Thanks to all, stay calm, and teach whoever you can what is at stake.

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