So, You Want To Know What Will Happen; I'll Tell You, But You Won't Believe Me

 

“The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings.” (Cassius, to Brutus, Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, Act I, Scene III).

What's going to happen? 

That is what everyone is asking, no?  I thought I should go on the record and share my own thoughts on the matter, since I've put myself out there enough over the past few years that some folks may want to get my assessment. Lots of others have tuned me out because I'm depressing, and tend to repeat myself.  Don't worry, no hard feelings, I'm used to it, I've been doing this for a long time.

I'll start with two things. First, I'm surprisingly relaxed for a change, and feel clear minded, as opposed to the mental state I've been in since November of 2016. This is not strictly related to the snifter of Single Barrel Kentucky Bourbon sitting on my desk as I type away, reflecting on the current state of affairs. I've actually been relatively calm for some time now. But you might want to pick up something to drink which might be over 100 Proof to get you through the next 2 months anyway. You'll need something after you hear what I have to say. 

Secondly, you might ask why I am relaxed, given the enormity of our current conjuncture of multiple existential crises, and what these mean for us personally. Will we survive the Pandemic? Will we be able to financially tread water, given the economic collapse. Will racist attacks and discrimination escalate? Will we have Health Care next year? Will Trump steal the election? Will there be violence, and by whom, for how long, and how bad. What happens if Trump loses and won't leave? What about our future, our kids and grandkids future if the US goes into chaos, and becomes ungovernable? What essential life sustaining functions of our Federal Government are going to be ruled unconstitutional by the Confederate/Social Darwinist Majority which now is running our Supreme Court?  Will the US become a Banana Republic? What will be the fate of the thousands of children and their families who were separated at the border? Will Climate change be unaddressed and lead to an ecological catastrophe? Will the Pension funds still be there next month? These are all questions that have been keeping us up at night. 

I'm calm for the simple reason that I know what is going to happen. Pretty much anyway. Anyone who has followed my Blog knows that I have been on the money in forecasting for the last 3 years. The issues I've been on top of have turned out to be the ones which most people have been avoiding until recently, even though they have been central. Everyone has a talent, whether it is Art, or Music, Math, Singing, Philosophical or Scientifc insight, Sports, or whatever. Mine is foresight. I've always had it since I was young. I was able to size people up, and assess events in such a way that I could see things coming. It annoys my wife and friends, but it is a thing. Its why I had value as a political organizer for over 35 years. Just don't ask me for Market tips. (sell! Buy Gold, hoard cash)

What will happen is more or less what you have been afraid of. We do not have a landslide coming, it will be close enough (with Biden winning the popular vote by a significant amount) on Electoral votes, that Trump will challenge the vote in every way that we have read about. He will claim fraud, will go to Court to have votes thrown out, Electors disallowed, will call on his supporters to take to the streets, will do everything possible to inflame the situation by calling on his supporters to launch rebellion, and provoke rioting and violence in our cities by trying to get a Supreme Court decision to award him the election. He is a Malignant Narcissist, and he will react to losing as did Hitler in his Bunker in Berlin. Rather than outright surrender, he will give orders to his followers to destroy everything in a fit of rage and revenge. 

This will unfold over 2 months, and nothing will be resolved on November 4. The most important question though is what will be the end result. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we will be living through a godawful mess, and will see and experience things which we never thought we would in our lifetimes, but, I'm fairly certain that when the smoke clears, Trump will be gone.

There will be damage, destruction and pain. The Pandemic and Economic crisis will be compounded and will continue affecting all of us for the next year. Trump's irregular army of Nazis, Boogaloos, Militias and Proud Boys are not going away after the election. They are stockpiling for a long war. There is no guarantee of a stimulus deal. But it is crucial to understand something, which I'm just going to assert, and hope this is taken in the spirit it is meant. The reason this will happen is because the American people waited too long to get active. It took a televised racist murder, that of George Floyd to get people in the streets. It took 220,000 dead and millions of infected or sick to force people to see the astounding level of lies, corruption and incompetence. It required Trump openly endorsing White Supremacy to make people believe that he is one of them. And it took Trump actually saying that he had no intention of allowing a peaceful transition if he lost for people to actually take the threat to our democratic system seriously.  I told you all he would do that 2 years ago, and what he would do to start a Civil War, but not very many started organizing or doing things until June or July this year. Then, we lost RBG, and people got serious when they realized what we had lost, and might lose in the future. So, most of you, who blithely went about your business, trying to survive day to day, avoiding stress and controversy, not wanting to antagonize your pro Trump friends or family, too fearful to face up to the reality, have brought what we are facing over the next 2 months upon yourselves. The things which people chose to do in their spare time, while avoiding all of this, is what has the potential to destroy us now. I'm raising this issue now because of the danger that after the election, and going forward, people will cave in to complacency and resignation, and go back to doing what they were doing before, acting like the "Good Romans" of Shakespeare's "Caesar". 

Now, the good news. The American people have finally emerged from their state of passivity and are doing things. There is tremendous activity of various kinds. People are studying history, government, economics, and so forth. There is a real learning and development process underway, notwithstanding the lateness of the hour. 

Trump himself is desperate, and appears mentally weakened by his case of covid. HIs supporters and closest associates all appear to be competing for a National contest to win the Darwin Award, seeing which of the maskless covidiots can find the most absurd and spectacularly reckless way to contract covid and spread it to their friends, co-workers and families.  The demographics, you see, do not look good for a Republican dynasty, or their QAnon 14th Century Flagellant Cult.

Also, Trump is being deserted by many of his erstwhile allies, including Republican Senators who don't want to go down with his ship. AG Barr has disappeared, and for the moment is defying Trump's demand to bring indictments against the Bidens, or even start an investigation. The FBI director Christopher Wray is channeling his namesake, Fay Wray, and is standing up to the Orange King Kong. The Stock Market is confirming our assessment that Trump is the biggest and most destructive, destabilizing and useless fleshblob in American History, and is rapidly descending in a coronavirus "free fall". Even Vladimir Putin, Trump's mentor (and possibly his biggest creditor) has publicly rebuffed the accusations against the Bidens regarding the so-called dealings in Ukraine. (yes, that happened, quietly last week) This augurs the possibility that Putin is hedging his bets, and doesn't want to give credibility to those accusing him of plotting to reinstall Trump for four more years. In fact, because of the global economic crisis caused by covid, it is likely that Putin is pulling back on his goal to use Trump to destabilitize and chaotically break up NATO, as the collapse of Oil prices and demand make the German-Russian Gas Pipeline deal even more important, and Putin needs some semblence of rapproachment with Europe. And not least, it is likely that Trump would rather not have to govern with a Democratic House and Senate, and would choose to make some kind of deal to exit, and avoid prosecution. He might prefer to try to rebuild his Brand, set up a Cable News Network of his own, and work to undermine a Biden-Harris administration from the outside. 

I believe he will use the method of terrorists and hostage takers to threaten Civil War as leverage to extract the best exit deal that he can get. I believe he will green light the violence right after the election to give himself maximum leverage. He knows now that he can't rely on the Military to follow orders if he invokes the 1807 Act, but that won't deter him from doing what he did in Portland, and earlier in Washington DC. 

I also can say with relative certainty that the level of damage and destruction Trump will be able to get away with before he leaves will be enabled and magnified by the enraged fools and dupes who react to everything with rioting and looting. People who choose that route are acting as Trump's allies, and might as well wear Trump-Pence 2020 T-Shirts. They are doing the stupidest thing imaginable, giving Trump the pretext he needs to try and declare Martial Law. This is unfortunately what I see happening, whether it goes that far or not. Once again, I draw upon the imagery of the Roman Mob in Shakespeare's Caesar, played like fiddles by the manipulative Marc Antony's Funeral speech to launch a violent rebellion, the purpose to reinstall dictatorship as the alternative to chaos. 

So, ultimately, I think the situation will resolve somewhat before inauguration. The US Establishment has made it clear that they themselves feel threatened by Trump's instability, and have in a variety of ways, openly and behind closed doors made known that their preference is that Trump needs to leave. Like the Malignant Narcissist that he is though, he will react to losing with a degree of rage and paranoia that will be frightening.  But, in the end, he will decide to do what he has always done, which is make a transactional deal, to preserve his business empire, his disgusting family member's businesses, and salvage his ego with a Trump News Network, in order to blow his bloody horn for all to hear. However, if Joe Biden and the Democratic Leadership do their jobs, listen to the right people, bring about some of the changes talked about, and take the wind out of the sails of Trump's base, whatever Trump does after he leaves will be made irrelevant. 

Those are some of my thoughts, for now. I hope that by next week, I am proven totally wrong, that my track record of forecasting is demolished and discredited, and you can all reach out to me and rub it in that I am an idiot. I will be the happiest guy on Earth if that happens. I will probably finish my Bourbon, and after I'm done, go on the wagon and give my Liver a rest. OK, let's roll.