Why Trump, Pompeo Brinksmanship vs China Could Cause Catastrophe
Why Trump, Pompeo Brinksmanship With China Could Lead to Catastrophe
There are rumors swirling about the possibly comatose state of Kim Jong Un. They may be true, but the source is the New York Post, a Murdoch Press outlet. They have announced on three occassions recently the demise or soon to be end of the North Korean alcoholic sex addict and Swiss Cheese Glutton, based on sources in South Korea who are as reliable as Perez Hilton of TMZ. Don't get carried away yet.
Start with what we know. Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson denounced Trump as a "Fucking Moron" after a Pentagon meeting more than 2 years ago with the top Brass and Trump. The assembled planners attempted to give him a simple strategic overview of our global posture and state of our alliances. He had no interest in listening whatsoever. It was over Trump's humiliating propitiation of Kim in which he agreed before a summit to cancel US Military maneuvers with the South Korean Military which we conduct every year, which Kim had objected to as a provocative war deployment. Trump, in response to objections from the Officials there, threw a fit, and denounced the Generals in the room as Losers, despite his having avoided the draft with fake bone spurs, while the others there had seen action all over the World. Trump actually threw a tantrum, and argued that US troops should never be deployed anywhere unless the US was paid for it, and it was a moneymaker. He literally told them he doesn't give a fuck about security, defense, or alliances, only the bottom line. He cited his dealings with MBS in Saudi Arabia, and the US arms deals with them as exemplary of that idea, and defended his withdrawal from the Syrian operations and abandonment of the Kurds using the same logic. That's around the same time when Tillerson made his comment.
So, in reality, Trump's policy is Strategic withdrawal from our traditional alliances, the destruction of NATO, and abandonment of US commitments to our historic partners, except for those countries which are ruled by like minded and propitiatory Dictators, such as Netanyahu, Erdogan, Dueterte, Bolsonaro, Kim, and Putin especially. President Xi is no longer in favor, given Trump's desperation to find a scapegoat for covid19.
He may say that his purpose is to put an end to these perpetual wars, and save money, or make money. But he has a different agenda. He wants US troops redeployed from where they are, TO USE THEM DOMESTICALLY HERE. That is and has always been his end game to keep power. Secondarily, he reserves the option to attack Iran, simply to maintain the loyalty of his Christian Fundamentalist base, nominally in defense of Israel. He also has requested plans be drawn up to invade Mexico, to inflame his base further with yet another racist diversion in his drive to demonize immigrants and blame them for his policy failures.
That said, any operations coordinated by Putin and Xi which result in regime change in North Korea, whether they install "Little Sister" or not, is with the idea of assisting Trump in his commitment to Global strategic disengagement, and his drive to maintain power in the US, which benefits their long term interest. They each have what they think is an accommodation with Trump, which is preferable to an incoming Biden Presidency.
Also, keep in mind, the US has used and played Japan and PM Abe as a Geopolitical pawn against China. The US under Trump has cynically used the threat of rearming Japan, and rescinding the Constitutional prohibition on Nuclear Weapons by Japan to check Chinese economic expansion in Asia.
China for the last decade has pursued a policy in cooperation with Russia called "One Belt, One Road", for building a transportation corridor based on high speed rail from China through Central Asia, to the Middle East and North Africa. The group of nations involved in this were referred to as BRICS. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. That coalition has fallen apart due to political instability within several of those countries, and divisions between them. India and its PM Modi have denounced China for Economic Imperialism in regard to this policy. The China India conflict is in fact the most dangerous strategic conflict in the World at this time, it is a very short fuse.
The countries through which the One Belt, One Road project would be built would be economically integrated into the Chinese Sphere, in exchange for Chinese State investment in these countries, which is why it is seen as a threat by many. Everything China does with North Korea, or any other Nation in that region is meant to further that economic expansion. It is inexorable, and a given that China's Economy will lead the World in this Century. They will not under any conditions risk that perspective and engage in Military conflict with the US to prop up the Kim Dynasty.
However, the Chinese find it convenient to continue the policy of using Kim in the North as a "Wild Card" for whacking Japan, keeping them and the South Koreans in a perpetual State of panic, and extracting concessions from the US in trade and other things, in exchange for their promise to "reign Kim in". Kim has rattled his sword repeatedly as did his father, using the tactic of threatening a Nuclear attack on Japan and South Korea, to extract loosening of sanctions so they could import food to address their starvation crisis. At any point that economic deprivation threatened Kim's hold on power, he would do an underground Nuclear test or Missile test to use as leverage to force concessions allowing increased food imports.
Therefore, expect that Trump and Pompeo will try to use any forthcoming regime change in North Korea to justify troop withdrawals from the South, not unlike the current plans to draw down troop strength in Germany, using the argument that "Little Sister" is more amenable to negotiating constructively with the South, and the US strategic role is winding down. Meanwhile, Pompeo and Trump will double down on their direct confrontation with China, on trade, Hong Kong, responsibilty for covid19, etc, which will escalate in any number of ways. Whether Kim disappears or not, the White House will try to incorporate any change there into their list of October Surprises, to be used in support of Trump's re-election, as a diplomatic breakthrough, cost savings that allow budget reductions in Defense, or whatever spin they decide to go with.
The danger of this scenario, is a collapse of the South Korean Government, a Military Coup and state of emergency, mass defections by dissidents in the North which overwhelm the South's perimeter at the 38th parallel, and a shooting war at the border. If the US historic role in maintaining stability in that region is suddenly withdrawn in the name of giving Trump a pre-election bump, the entire region could go up in flames.
Finally, keep in mind, China is the US 2nd biggest foreign creditor, and holder of US Treasury Bonds. They have the financial leverage to crash the US Dollar if they so choose. Playing brinksmanship with them over Korea will blow up in our faces.
It's best when looking at these situations to not look for "connectos". You want to look at dynamics and anticipate where these developments lead, rather than fixate on personalities or headlines. The biggest mistake that analysts or people in general make is to look at events as unfolding Reality TV, based on pairwise interaction between personalities. It is historical and Economic dynamics over Centuries, as they impact institutional power that determine what Nations do. Occasionally, historic individuals who break profile change the dynamics. Unfortunately, we the People are so conditioned to our Tabloid culture of scandal and celebrity gossip, that we are virtually incapable of making sense of the world we live in.
Wars and catastrophes often result from strategic miscalculation, not by design. You cannot understand or prevent such things by looking them up in Google. You need history, engagement, and subjective insight. To have those attributes, the preoccupation with the future of mankind needs to be deeply personal for those involved, not academic. Those are qualities sorely lacking in these times.
There are rumors swirling about the possibly comatose state of Kim Jong Un. They may be true, but the source is the New York Post, a Murdoch Press outlet. They have announced on three occassions recently the demise or soon to be end of the North Korean alcoholic sex addict and Swiss Cheese Glutton, based on sources in South Korea who are as reliable as Perez Hilton of TMZ. Don't get carried away yet.
Start with what we know. Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson denounced Trump as a "Fucking Moron" after a Pentagon meeting more than 2 years ago with the top Brass and Trump. The assembled planners attempted to give him a simple strategic overview of our global posture and state of our alliances. He had no interest in listening whatsoever. It was over Trump's humiliating propitiation of Kim in which he agreed before a summit to cancel US Military maneuvers with the South Korean Military which we conduct every year, which Kim had objected to as a provocative war deployment. Trump, in response to objections from the Officials there, threw a fit, and denounced the Generals in the room as Losers, despite his having avoided the draft with fake bone spurs, while the others there had seen action all over the World. Trump actually threw a tantrum, and argued that US troops should never be deployed anywhere unless the US was paid for it, and it was a moneymaker. He literally told them he doesn't give a fuck about security, defense, or alliances, only the bottom line. He cited his dealings with MBS in Saudi Arabia, and the US arms deals with them as exemplary of that idea, and defended his withdrawal from the Syrian operations and abandonment of the Kurds using the same logic. That's around the same time when Tillerson made his comment.
So, in reality, Trump's policy is Strategic withdrawal from our traditional alliances, the destruction of NATO, and abandonment of US commitments to our historic partners, except for those countries which are ruled by like minded and propitiatory Dictators, such as Netanyahu, Erdogan, Dueterte, Bolsonaro, Kim, and Putin especially. President Xi is no longer in favor, given Trump's desperation to find a scapegoat for covid19.
He may say that his purpose is to put an end to these perpetual wars, and save money, or make money. But he has a different agenda. He wants US troops redeployed from where they are, TO USE THEM DOMESTICALLY HERE. That is and has always been his end game to keep power. Secondarily, he reserves the option to attack Iran, simply to maintain the loyalty of his Christian Fundamentalist base, nominally in defense of Israel. He also has requested plans be drawn up to invade Mexico, to inflame his base further with yet another racist diversion in his drive to demonize immigrants and blame them for his policy failures.
That said, any operations coordinated by Putin and Xi which result in regime change in North Korea, whether they install "Little Sister" or not, is with the idea of assisting Trump in his commitment to Global strategic disengagement, and his drive to maintain power in the US, which benefits their long term interest. They each have what they think is an accommodation with Trump, which is preferable to an incoming Biden Presidency.
Also, keep in mind, the US has used and played Japan and PM Abe as a Geopolitical pawn against China. The US under Trump has cynically used the threat of rearming Japan, and rescinding the Constitutional prohibition on Nuclear Weapons by Japan to check Chinese economic expansion in Asia.
China for the last decade has pursued a policy in cooperation with Russia called "One Belt, One Road", for building a transportation corridor based on high speed rail from China through Central Asia, to the Middle East and North Africa. The group of nations involved in this were referred to as BRICS. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. That coalition has fallen apart due to political instability within several of those countries, and divisions between them. India and its PM Modi have denounced China for Economic Imperialism in regard to this policy. The China India conflict is in fact the most dangerous strategic conflict in the World at this time, it is a very short fuse.
The countries through which the One Belt, One Road project would be built would be economically integrated into the Chinese Sphere, in exchange for Chinese State investment in these countries, which is why it is seen as a threat by many. Everything China does with North Korea, or any other Nation in that region is meant to further that economic expansion. It is inexorable, and a given that China's Economy will lead the World in this Century. They will not under any conditions risk that perspective and engage in Military conflict with the US to prop up the Kim Dynasty.
However, the Chinese find it convenient to continue the policy of using Kim in the North as a "Wild Card" for whacking Japan, keeping them and the South Koreans in a perpetual State of panic, and extracting concessions from the US in trade and other things, in exchange for their promise to "reign Kim in". Kim has rattled his sword repeatedly as did his father, using the tactic of threatening a Nuclear attack on Japan and South Korea, to extract loosening of sanctions so they could import food to address their starvation crisis. At any point that economic deprivation threatened Kim's hold on power, he would do an underground Nuclear test or Missile test to use as leverage to force concessions allowing increased food imports.
Therefore, expect that Trump and Pompeo will try to use any forthcoming regime change in North Korea to justify troop withdrawals from the South, not unlike the current plans to draw down troop strength in Germany, using the argument that "Little Sister" is more amenable to negotiating constructively with the South, and the US strategic role is winding down. Meanwhile, Pompeo and Trump will double down on their direct confrontation with China, on trade, Hong Kong, responsibilty for covid19, etc, which will escalate in any number of ways. Whether Kim disappears or not, the White House will try to incorporate any change there into their list of October Surprises, to be used in support of Trump's re-election, as a diplomatic breakthrough, cost savings that allow budget reductions in Defense, or whatever spin they decide to go with.
The danger of this scenario, is a collapse of the South Korean Government, a Military Coup and state of emergency, mass defections by dissidents in the North which overwhelm the South's perimeter at the 38th parallel, and a shooting war at the border. If the US historic role in maintaining stability in that region is suddenly withdrawn in the name of giving Trump a pre-election bump, the entire region could go up in flames.
Finally, keep in mind, China is the US 2nd biggest foreign creditor, and holder of US Treasury Bonds. They have the financial leverage to crash the US Dollar if they so choose. Playing brinksmanship with them over Korea will blow up in our faces.
It's best when looking at these situations to not look for "connectos". You want to look at dynamics and anticipate where these developments lead, rather than fixate on personalities or headlines. The biggest mistake that analysts or people in general make is to look at events as unfolding Reality TV, based on pairwise interaction between personalities. It is historical and Economic dynamics over Centuries, as they impact institutional power that determine what Nations do. Occasionally, historic individuals who break profile change the dynamics. Unfortunately, we the People are so conditioned to our Tabloid culture of scandal and celebrity gossip, that we are virtually incapable of making sense of the world we live in.
Wars and catastrophes often result from strategic miscalculation, not by design. You cannot understand or prevent such things by looking them up in Google. You need history, engagement, and subjective insight. To have those attributes, the preoccupation with the future of mankind needs to be deeply personal for those involved, not academic. Those are qualities sorely lacking in these times.
